Here’s the deal
When the last Baby Boomers were born in 1964, at 72.5 million people, they represented 37.7% of the US population. Due to immigration, their numbers continued to grow until 1999, but they’ve been declining in number ever since. Finally, in 2019, skipping over Gen X entirely, Boomers were overtaken by the Millennials, who now represent the largest generational cohort, accounting for 21.7% of the population versus the Boomers’ shrinking 20.9%.
Bill Clinton was our first Baby Boom president. He took office in 1993, 31 years ago. Clinton, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump were all born in 1946. They aren’t even young Boomers. Born in 1961, Barack Obama holds the title of our youngest president, though still a Boomer. He took office at 47 years old and will be 62 next month, a relative baby. By 2030, all Boomers will be over 65 years old.
One need not look far to see the vice grip that the Boomers have on our society, our culture, our economy, and our lives. Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Elon Musk are all Boomers. Tim Cook is a Boomer, as was Steve Jobs. Reed Hastings, Bob Iger, Jamie Dimon, all Boomers. Technically, Joe Biden isn’t a Boomer; he’s too old by four years, but his advanced age is what’s relevant in this discussion.
It’s impossible to watch this election cycle and not wonder, When are the Baby Boomers finally going to surrender their hold on America? When are they going to cede their power to the next generation? If Biden were to step down as the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, a leading contender to replace him at the top of the ticket, is still a Boomer, but just barely. Governors Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and Andy Beshear are all legit Gen X candidates, capable of leading the top of the Democratic ticket, as are Pete Buttigieg, J.B. Pritzker, and Cory Booker.
Boomers made up only 30% of voters in the most recent midterm elections of 2022. At a time when their influence and power should be on the inevitable decline, their control remains entrenched for now. Why is this generational shift so difficult?
Approximately 4.1 million Americans are poised to turn 65 this year and every year through 2027, according to a report from the Alliance for Lifetime Income. Dubbed the “silver tsunami,” the figure represents the largest surge of retirement-age Americans in history. But will they actually retire?
Americans are working longer, well into their 60s and 70s. Last year, 19% of Americans 65 and older were still working, two times the rate from the late 1980s. According to a Gallup survey, the average retirement age has increased from 59 to 62 in the past 20 years. Older people are also working more hours, about 30% more than they were in 1987. Labor force participation is up dramatically among older Americans. In 2022, those 55-and-over comprised 23.3% of the labor force compared to 14.3% in 2002. Similarly, among those 75-and-over, participation was 1.1% in 2022 compared to 0.6% in 2002. Those numbers represent a significant graying of the labor force.
Some people are working because they have to, some are working because they want to, and many are working for some combination of the two. On the one hand, pensions have disappeared, and Social Security benefit thresholds have risen, while many workers have simply not saved enough. On the other hand, people are healthier and living longer, and the labor market is tight, creating opportunities for older, college-educated workers. There are lots of good reasons to work longer, but there are also practical limits and equally good reasons for older people to work less.
Generational characterizations and assumptions about people based on their age can be deeply flawed or simply misunderstood. The idea that people are shaped by the time and place they were born and raised is nonetheless very powerful and provides important insights into human behavior.
Baby Boomers, for instance, fundamentally came of age in the 1960s and 1970s, so it was Boomers who went to Woodstock, burned their bras, and protested the Vietnam War, but it was also Boomers who propelled Trump to the White House in 2016 and who still provide his base of support. This bifurcation of a generational cohort isn’t unique to Boomers, but Boomers are both less likely to be unaffiliated than younger generations and also more likely to be Republican, while younger voters lean Democratic by wide margins. This partisan divide by age is as clean and as stark as it’s ever been.
The Democrats hold a substantial edge among younger voters, while Republicans have a strong advantage among the oldest groups. About two-thirds of voters ages 18 to 24 (66%) identify with the Democratic Party, compared with 34% who align with the GOP. Similarly, voters ages 25 to 29 lean Democratic by a 32-point margin (64% to 32%). Among older voters, however, the GOP holds a clear advantage, edging out Democrats by a10-point margin among voters in their 60s (53% to 43%), a five-point margin among voters in their 70s (51% to 46%), and a dramatic 19-point margin among voters over 80 (58% to 39%).
These figures prompt numerous questions. Why isn’t this an easier path to victory for the Democrats? And given these demographics, why is Joe Biden the standard-bearer of the Democratic party? It makes sense that the aging Republican party might be drawn to one of their own (setting aside all the other reasons to eschew Trump), but why do Boomers still have such a hold on the Democrats?
Coined in the 1970s, the “Me” generation refers to the self-involved qualities of America’s Boomers. The term highlights a shift toward prioritizing personal goals over social responsibility. At the cusp of the Silent Generation, Biden has a lot in common with Boomers, but he also represents the last bulwark against the prior generations’ principled ideals of sacrifice, community, loyalty, and frugality. The Silent Generation was born into the difficult years of the Great Depression and World War II and came of age at the dawn of the Civil Rights movement and the birth of rock and roll.
The Boomers’ focus on youth and self-fulfillment was perhaps a reaction against their parents’ traditional values. Challenging the controls of government, religion, culture, and even family, Boomers shepherded America from the self-actualization of the 1960s into the self-gratification of the 1970s and eventually the self-importance of the 1980s. To the rest of us, it still seems that Boomers have an outsized view of their own significance. They can sometimes seem like bullies who think they deserve to have the loudest voice and the biggest piece of the pie.
It’s in this context that Biden believes he’s best suited to hold together the fragile Democratic coalition, still believing in consensus and compromise. Trump and the Boomers behind him, on the other hand, are pushing toward more aggressive, more authoritarian moves against Biden’s broad coalition, which includes not just traditional Democrats of all ages but also younger, impatient, anxious voters, across the ideological spectrum. Young progressives have found a growing voice in the party, while other young, less partisan, and less engaged voters are even more frustrated and disaffected. The unified opposition to Trump has been Biden’s strength, as he has so far been able to present himself as the only person who has beaten Trump — and the only one who can do it again.
Biden has been running on this winning record, as well as his formidable legislative accomplishments. Yet, 2024 isn’t 2020. Biden is 81 years old — older than 97% of Americans. Biden once represented a safe, comforting choice in 2020, but that’s no longer the case. “Here’s the deal” and “Malarkey” don’t sound folksy, they sound old. Saying “ain’t” and “y’all” to Black voters now sounds a little cringe. And his lack of self-awareness isn’t just affecting his ability to connect with voters on the campaign trail, it’s impacting his ability to see clearly that he’s not likely the strongest candidate for this moment.
One definition of self-awareness is the ability to assess clearly (without judgment) your thoughts, feelings, and emotions. Beyond that, it’s the ability to use that awareness in a way that optimally navigates any given situation. People who aren’t self-aware may be ignorant of the context of their surroundings and unable to succeed in that context as a result. The ability to think about one’s thoughts is also called metacognition and gives rise to self-awareness. This is arguably what makes us human.
An article in Harvard Business Review focused on emotional intelligence and cultivating self-awareness suggested that, in order to practice self-awareness, we should ask ourselves what questions instead of why questions. What questions are more important to becoming self-aware in practical ways. Why questions are theoretical and introspective, but they can redirect us away from effective, actionable responses. Why answers may give us excuses. What answers give us direction.
Importantly, there are two types of self-awareness: internal and external. Internal self-awareness is an understanding who you are, while external self-awareness is the recognition of how others see you. This brings me back to Biden. I’m curious how he perceives and understands his own situation, specifically, his own aging. And I’m curious if he’s really aware of how others see his aging. Perhaps more than in any other career, as a politician, understanding how others see you is critically important, particularly if it affects how voters may vote. While a certain amount of ego is essential to run for office, too much ego is probably the most significant impediment to effective self-awareness.
Biden’s political ascent represented dramatic generational change itself. In 1972, he was elected to the Senate at 29 years old. He was only eligible to serve because he turned 30 before his swearing in. His personal story — fraught with tragedy and loss, resilience and humanity — is a uniquely inspiring American drama. Because of his persistent struggle against the odds, he’s comfortable as the underdog. And he may do it again, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he should try to.
Saying “as long as I gave it my all” grossly minimizes what’s at stake. Saying “only the Lord almighty” can drive him from the race makes him sound less like a fighter and more like someone who’s oblivious to his circumstances. (And it’s not even worth arguing about whether or not he actually said “the goodest job as I know I can do.”)
There have been dozens of opinion pieces written on Biden’s debate performance and the decision that lies before him. It should go without saying that no one knows the right answer, but an essay in The Economist entitled Joe Biden is fooling only himself hit home for me. Conceding that Biden may have good reason to believe in his capacity to beat the polls, the author concludes that Biden is unfortunately now “facing an opponent no one has ever defeated, in a contest that is rigged against us all.” Age.
Whether it’s a politician’s arrogance, a Boomer’s hubris, or an underdog’s optimism, here’s the deal, Joe, please step aside before it’s too late.
